2023 NFL divisional round stats to know

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On a weekend full of , Jaguars-Chiefs might just present the best one in terms Sheldon Richardson Jersey of recent form. Over the final eight weeks of the season, and both ranked in the top five of several statistical categories, leading their teams to strong finishes. After a Week 11 bye, Lawrence and the won six of their final seven games to claim the AFC South. Mahomes and the won seven of their final eight to earn the coveted No. 1 seed in the AFC and, in turn, a first-round bye.Those strong closes to the season came after a Week 10 meeting that the Chiefs won, 27-17. Kansas City jumped out to a 20-0 lead and out-gained Jacksonville, 486-315. Despite committing three turnovers, the Chiefs controlled the game throughout, and, unlike last week against the , Lawrence couldn't lead any sort of comeback.So, what can the Jaguars do to keep their magical late-season run going? And what must the Chiefs do to ensure a similar outcome to the first meeting? Let's take a look: Featured Game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Moneyline Spread Total KC JAC JAC QB #16 CMP%66.3YDs4113TD25INT8YD/Att7.04 There are seemingly endle s reasons behind Lawrence's ma sive jump from his rookie season to this second season, but none is bigger than his ability to absolutely destroy blitzes. The numbers are staggering. Trevor Lawrence expected points added per dropback (with league rank)20212022vs. 4 pa s rushers-0.01 (21st)0.06 (14th Sione Takitaki Jersey )vs. 5 pa s rushers-0.30 (29th)0.29 (2nd)vs. 6+ pa s rushers-0.41 (29th)0.30 (7th)Against the Chiefs in Week 10, Lawrence took a season-high five sacks, and three of them came when Kansas City blitz. Overall on the day, Lawrence posted -0.13 EPA per dropback when not blitzed (his fourth-worst this season) and 0.49 EPA per dropback when blitzed. Here's why:Trevor Lawrence Week 10 vs. ChiefsNot blitzedBlitzedAir yards per attempt4.810.8Percent of attempts at or behind line of scrimmage45.8%6.3%Time to throw2.552.22The trend? The Chiefs were happy to sit back in coverage, force Lawrence to throw short, and then come up and tackle. Overall, Lawrence threw 12 pa ses behind the line of scrimmage -- his second-most in any game this season -- for just 53 yards. Here's an example of the Chiefs dropping seven into coverage and then getting a tackle for lo s by , who reads the play perfectly.It's worth noting here that is a huge reason the Chiefs can succeed without sending extra pre sure. The first-time first-team All-Pro had 1.5 sacks in the Week 10 game. He finished the season with 15.5 sacks (tied for fourth in the ) and 77 quarterback pre sures (fifth), and his 60 pre sures on non-blitzes only trailed and . And that's despite Jones playing most of his snaps Jarvis Landry Jersey at defensive tackle. The Chiefs do a great job moving him around, though: His 27 defensive end snaps against the Jaguars were his second-most in any game this season, and that's where both of his sack involvements came from.One way Lawrence can counter here is trying to hit more intermediate routes. As we mentioned, Lawrence attempted a ton of pa ses behind the line of scrimmage against the Chiefs, and that came at the expense of intermediate throws: Only five of his 40 attempts (12.5%) were in the 11 to 20 yards downfield range, his second-lowest rate this season.This game, however, proved to be something of a turning point. Over the final seven games of the season, nearly 24% of Lawrence's throws were in the 11 to 20 yard range; before that, it had been under 20%. Against the Chiefs specifically, Lawrence had succe s in this range: 3-for-5, 44 yards and a touchdown, with all three completions coming against the blitz. He'll have to hit on these throws Saturday to keep the Chiefs defense from creeping up too far.Furthermore, expect to be a bigger part of the game plan. He had just three catches for 14 yards in the first matchup and, following that game, had just a 16.9% target share on the season. That's up to 21.5% since. Plus, the Chiefs allowed nine receiving touchdowns to tight ends this season (tied for fifth-most in the NFL) and gave up a 101.9 pa ser rating when tight ends were targeted, 20th in the NFL. KC TE #87 TAR152REC110REC Jim Brown Jersey YDs1338REC TD12FL1 Speaking of tight ends, it should come as no surprise that is in line for a huge game. That's generally the case every week, but it's especially true against the Jaguars, who really struggle against the position.Jaguars Defending Tight Ends This SeasonNFL RankYards per attempt9.5MostPa s yards10873rd-mostPa ser rating119.33rd-highestKelce had six receptions (on seven targets) for 81 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting. More than half of his yards came on a cro sing route in the first quarter that went for 46 yards.This has been a major problem area for the Jaguars, and not just against tight ends. Jacksonville allowed 10.2 yards per attempt when a cro sing route was targeted this season, fourth-highest in the NFL. The Chiefs hit on this concept several times in Week 10, including on this touchdown to . KC QB #15 CMP%67.1YDs5250TD41INT12YD/Att8.1 Mahomes is as good as it gets, but he's not impervious to pre sure. Specifically, pre sure when not blitzed. Considering how great of an improviser he is, Mahomes actually struggles significantly in these situations, sometimes of his improvisation skills.Patrick Mahomes when Pre sured and Not Blitzed This SeasonNFL Rank (out of 33)Pa ser rating57.622ndInterceptions62nd-mostInterception rate4.8%24thCompletion percentage43.7%23rdThe good news for the Jaguars is that this is one of the best features of their defense. It ranks sixth in pre sure rate without blitzing, and it was able to force Mahomes into one of his six interceptions this season when he was pre sured but not blitzed.Unfortunately for Jacksonville, the turnover advantage wasn't enough to really challenge Kansas City in Week 10. Since then, though, the Jaguars have played terrific football. So, too, have the Chiefs. The adjustments by both teams from their Week 10 meeting will be crucial Damarious Randall Jersey in determining which will advance to the AFC Championship.